Behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes: From contributing factors,pre-crash actions,to injury severities

Introduction: This study performed a path analysis to uncover the behavioral pathways (from contributing factors, pre-crash actions to injury severities) in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. Method: The analysis investigated more than 7,000 bicycle-motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina between 2007 and 2014. Pre-crash actions discussed in this study are actions of cyclists and motorists prior to the event of a crash, including “bicyclist failed to yield,” “motorist failed to yield,” “bicyclist overtaking motorist,” and “motorist overtaking bicyclist.” Results: Model results show significant correlates of pre-crash actions and bicyclist injury severity. For example, young bicyclists (18 years old or younger) are 23.5% more likely to fail to yield to motor traffic prior to the event of a crash than elder bicyclists. The “bicyclist failed to yield” action is associated with increased bicyclist injury severity than other actions, as this behavior is associated with an increase of 5.88 percentage points in probability of a bicyclist being at least evidently injured. The path analysis can highlight contributing factors related to risky pre-crash actions that lead to severe injuries. For example, bicyclists traveling on regular vehicle travel lanes are found to be more likely to involve the “bicyclist failed to yield” action, which resulted in a total 44.38% (7.04% direct effect + 37.34% indirect effect) higher likelihood of evident or severe injuries. The path analysis can also identify factors (e.g., intersection) that are not directly but indirectly correlated with injury severity through pre-crash actions. Practical Applications: This study offers a methodological framework to quantify the behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. The findings are useful for cycling safety improvements from the perspective of bicyclist behavior, such as the educational program for cyclists.     

Fatal hit-and-run crashes: Factors associated with leaving the scene

Introduction: Hit-and-run crashes are a criminal offense that leave the victim without prompt medical care or the ability to receive financial compensation. Method: The purpose of the current study was to quantify the factors associated with the probability that a driver leaves the scene of a fatal crash, using multiple imputation to incorporate information from drivers who were never apprehended and thus whose characteristics were unknown. Results: The results of this study show that in addition to driver, vehicle, and environmental factors having significant impacts on the likelihood of a driver fleeing the scene, economic and demographic factors are important as well. Practical Applications: This analysis allows for a more holistic understanding of hit-and-run crashes and informs potential countermeasures and future research.     

On the need for system-theoretic hazard analysis in the process industries

Most process hazard analysis (PHA) studies today are conducted using traditional methods such as the hazard and operability study (HAZOP). Traditional methods are based on a chain-of-events model of accident causality. Current models of accident causality are based on systems theory and provide a more complete representation of the causal factors involved in accidents. Consequently, it is logical to expect that PHA methods should reflect these models, that is, system-theoretic hazard analysis (STHA) should be used. Indeed, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) has been developed as such a method. STPA has been used in a variety of industries but, at this time, it has not gained acceptance by the process industries. This article explores the reasons for this situation. Expectations for PHA in the process industries are examined and issues for the application of STPA in the process industries are discussed. It is concluded that a variety of matters must be addressed before STPA can be considered as a viable PHA method for the process industries and the case for the use of STHA in the process industries is not yet proven.     

Insight into the safety distance of ground and underground installations in typical petrochemical plants

Petrochemical plants are continuously turning into large-size corporations, the installations of facilities show a developing trend from ground to underground because of the difference in land using rate. In this regard, the safety distance of petrochemical equipment buried in both ground and underground cases were investigated based on risk assessment. As a case study, gasoline tank and LPG tank set on the ground and underground are singled out to compare the risks involved. The research showed that the setting case of installation had a great influence on safety distance. Two cases have 80% reduction of equivalent safety distance compared with the rest of the cases. It was found that when the gasoline storage tank was placed underground alone, the PLL value decreased by 36.7%. Only LPG tank was placed underground, and the PLL decreased by 6.33%, and the gasoline and LPG storage tanks were placed underground simultaneously, the PLL value declined by 42.3%. Thus, the layout of plants could be further optimized, which can greatly improve the performances of land use efficiency and safety. In addition, this paper, the selection of embedding methods and the sensitivity of underground case to overpressure was resumed from two aspects: soil properties and burial depth. For the soil properties, it was found that the water saturated sandy soil with high air content and the low density unsaturated sandy soil had better effects on weakening overpressure. Such properties are particularly beneficial to reducing the occurrence rate of accidents. In terms of burial depth, it can be observed that as the burial depth was changed from 0.5m to 1.1m, the value of overpressure has dropped dramatically. When the burial depth was 2m, the damage to personnel and buildings has been greatly reduced beyond 2m from the explosion center.     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

Risk assessment method of polyethylene dust explosion based on explosion parameters

The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (P_max), explosion index (K_st), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on P_max and K_st. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene.     

滑坡体三维构造及稳定性分析

采用体元技术建立滑坡体真三维模型,通过基本三棱柱体构建具有复杂曲面结构的空间组合体,每个单元都赋予不同的属性,为滑坡体三维稳定性分析提供基本的前、后处理功能.以此为基础,并结合三维极限平衡分析计算方法,开发了相关的滑坡三维模拟与稳定性分析软件,并成功应用于清江库岸大型滑坡的三维仿真计算.     

公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难和不确定性分析

首先分析了公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难,即评价方法的不成熟和获取资料的困难;然后重点分析了评价中的公路网规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定、空间信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定;最后提出了 4种解决困难和降低不确定的方法,即制定公路网规划环境影响评价技术导则,使用基于情景分析的预测方法,广泛开展公众参与以及通过多方协作的方式开展环境影响评价工作.     

基于模糊聚类关联分析法的煤与瓦斯突出程度分析

运用模糊聚类分析方法对煤与瓦斯突出的样本集合进行分类,建立了不同突出程度的模糊模式.用关联分析确定待分析样本与模式的关联程度,以此预测预报样本的煤与瓦斯突出危险程度.实例分析表明,与模糊聚类分类后、将模式与待预报样本组成新样本集合进行聚类分析并以此分类结果进行预报的方法相比,这种预报方法不仅可靠程度高,而且能定量描述待报样本与模式的亲和程度.